National Steel Production Data for September 2021

In September 2021, the country produced 73.75 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 21.20%, and a daily output of 2.4583 million tons per day, a decrease of 8.45% from the previous month; the production of pig iron was 65.190 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.10%, and a daily output of 2.173 million tons per day, a decrease from the previous month. 5.83%; the production of steel products was 101.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.80%, and the daily output was 3,398,300 tons per day, a month-on-month decrease of 3.17%; from January to September, the country’s cumulative crude steel production was 806 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and the cumulative daily output was 2,952,200 tons , A year-on-year increase of 2.37%; produced 671 million tons of pig iron, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.30%, a cumulative daily output of 2.4581 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.94%; produced 1.020 billion tons of steel, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.60%, and a cumulative daily output of 3,737,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.98 %.

　　 Development and Reform Commission: Approved 7 fixed asset investment projects in September

　　 The National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson said that from January to September, the National Development and Reform Commission approved 66 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of RMB 480.4 billion, mainly in the transportation, energy, and information industries. In September, the Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 7 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 75.2 billion yuan.

　　Statistics Bureau: In September, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in various tier cities remained flat or decreased month-on-month

　　According to calculations, in September, the sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities rose 0.3% from the previous month to the same level. Among them, the month-on-month increase in Beijing changed from 0.2% last month to the same; Guangzhou fell 0.1%, the same as last month; Shanghai and Shenzhen both rose 0.2%, and the increase was 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. The sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities turned from an increase of 0.2% last month to a decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the month-on-month increase in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou changed from 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.5% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.2%, 0.6%, and 0.4%; Shenzhen fell by 0.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The sales price of newly-built commercial housing in second-tier cities has changed from a 0.2% increase in the previous month to the same level; the sales price of second-hand housing has changed from a flat in the previous month to a decrease of 0.1%.

　　 In September 2021, the output of excavators was 25,894 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.54%

　　 According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of excavators in September 2021 was 25,894 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.54%; the cumulative output of excavators from January to September was 323,227 units, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year.

　　 Yi Gang: Coordinate the implementation of monetary policy and macro-prudential policies

　　 Central Bank Governor Yi Gang stated at the 2021 Financial Street Forum Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions Meeting that he would coordinate the implementation of monetary policy and macro-prudential policies. A stable banking system is inseparable from a stable monetary policy environment. In the past few years, China's banking industry has done a lot to dispose of non-performing loans, which has played a great role in resolving credit cycle risks.

　　 Development and Reform Commission: Accelerate the merger and reorganization of steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass and other industries

　　The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Action Plan for Strict Energy Efficiency Constraints in Key Industries in Metallurgy and Building Materials to Promote Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction (2021-2025)", which proposed to promote the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure. Do a good job in the convergence of industrial layout, structural adjustment, energy conservation review, and dual control policies for energy consumption. Promote the concentrated development of steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass and other industries, improve the level of intensification and modernization, form economies of scale, and reduce energy consumption per unit of product. Accelerate the merger and reorganization of steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass and other industries. Further optimize the industrial layout, promote the cluster development of new steel smelting projects relying on existing production bases, and encourage long-process steel mills in qualified areas to transform and develop electric furnace short-process steelmaking through on-site transformation and transformation.

　　Statistics Bureau: In September, domestic steel production was 17.698 million tons

　　 The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in September 2021, China's steel production was 17.698 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%; the cumulative output from January to September was 195.452 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. In September, China's wire rod (wire rod) output was 11.171 million tons, down 27.2% year-on-year; the cumulative output from January to September was 1,2056.8 tons, down 2.3% year-on-year.

This week, the macro news lacks good news, which is mainly manifested in: 1. The economy returns to normal operation, and GDP growth is declining quarter by quarter; 2. Fixed asset investment is slowing down, and the increase in industrial value added in September is less than expected; 3. Macro-prudential policies are not The expectation of RRR cut has failed again; 4. The investment model of real estate enterprises has changed, and the growth rate of real estate development investment is decreasing; 5. The effect of the policy combination is obvious. In September, the housing prices of various tiers of cities were flat or decreased; 6. The growth of downstream industries was slow Slowly, the output of excavators in September fell year-on-year.

From an industry perspective, the effect of production restrictions continues to show: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of crude steel in September was 73.75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%; the output of steel in September was 101.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%; the output of pig iron in September was 65.19 million Tons, down 16.1% year-on-year. From January to September, the country's cumulative production of crude steel was 806 million tons, and the year-on-year growth rate has been compressed to 2.0%. Comparing with historical data, it can be found that the domestic monthly crude steel output has fallen for four consecutive months, and the average daily crude steel output has declined for five consecutive months. As long as the current "squeezed production" rhythm is maintained, the "annual year-on-year crude steel output decline" will be completed. The indicators are no suspense. While "subtracting" on the supply side, the price of imported iron ore was almost "halved" from the highest level, creating good conditions for the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure, and also hedging the risk of downstream demand decline in the later stage of the epidemic.

　　 Looking back this week, futures fell again, the spot panic fell, steel mills were unable to support the market, and market expectations turned. From the perspective of market trends, all parts of the country have changed from "differentiation" to "synchronization": in the north, steel mills mainly compensated for the decline, and the market decline increased; in the south, the demand fell month-on-month, and the price decline remained unchanged; the north-south market as a whole declined, and the regional The spread continues to converge. On the whole, the supply in the north is strong and the demand is weak, and the price has not been able to stick to it; the supply in the south has increased, and the price is still weak. Black futures fell sharply this week, the spot market was full of grief, raw material prices fluctuated, rigid demand strength weakened, and merchants tended to be pessimistic.

　　 Futures fell sharply, the market cut prices and fled, and manufacturers passively followed the decline. This is the main feature of the market this week. Next, it is expected that terminal demand will be difficult to boost, speculative demand will become more cautious, the capital market will fluctuate, and the ex-factory price will follow the market. It can be seen that the current steel price is in the "returning" stage: the speculation of production restriction is no longer, the demand worry is intensified, the cost center is lowered, and the merchants are no longer enthusiastic.

　　For the Shanghai area, market conditions have not yet shaken off the weakening state: poor demand, prices are consolidating; futures are falling, and spot prices are falling. The current positive factors mainly include: supply is low, ex-factory prices are upside down, and inventory pressure is not great; the negative factors are mainly: futures are at a discount, demand is less than expected, and steel mills are unable to support prices. The author believes that steel prices fell again this week as a direct response to the decline in transactions, and the policy trend and the decline in futures have played a role. It is expected that the Shanghai market price will fluctuate and adjust next week. What needs attention are: policy trends, futures changes, and the intensity of demand.